What is the housing market going to do this year? Go down, up or stabilise?
The state of the housing market is one of the most asked questions that we at Chiltern Relocation, in addition to local agents, are being asked right now.
With headlines in 2023 predicting a sharp decline in house prices, many house hunters are looking to the experts for a steer on the outlook of the property market. Vendors want to understand the state of the market before committing to sell their property. Recent headlines have indicated a fall in house prices in London, which may cause a ‘ripple effect’ in areas outside the city. Indeed, The FT reported on 18th January that UK house prices fell at the fastest pace in more than a decade (paywall), with the ONS data showing the biggest drop in London, reflecting the impact of high interest rates.
The Halifax is forecasting that: ‘House prices are predicted to fall by 2% and 4% in 2024, as broader economic challenges and mild downward pressure on house prices look set to continue’. The Nationwide House Price Review and Forecast also echo this negative slant. They believe that: ‘Rapid rebound in house prices is unlikely in 2024 with house prices to see low single digit decline or remain broadly flat in 2024’.
Headlines such as these give rise to a position of nervousness from vendors as they wait to see whether the recent interest rate cuts will help boost the housing market and reverse some of the recent downward trends. We understand that many vendors are keen to move but won’t list in the current climate creating a stalemate affect in the housing market.
With a General Election also on the horizon, which causes uncertainty with the prospect of higher taxation, it is no wonder that many vendors are deciding to stall their move for the time being.
However, some vendors do not have the luxury of sitting it out. The ‘three D’s’: Death, Debt and Divorce are often the critical triggers for house moves – even if the property market predictions aren’t looking optimal.
January 2nd has been coined by lawyers as ‘Divorce Day’. This is the first Monday after the holiday period when divorce lawyers receive the most significant enquiries. Chiltern Relocation is happy to report that we – and local agents – have not seen a surge in property listings resulting from ‘divorce day.’ However, given the sensitive nature of such situations many properties that are sold following a divorce are sold off market to protect the privacy of the couple and family.
Off market listings are very much part of the current housing market scene. Chiltern Relocation viewed a property in Amersham last week that will not come onto the open market. Many vendors want to protect their privacy and do not wish to have multiple viewings carried out at their homes. Many off market homes are shown to an exclusive list of relocation agents and a handful of estate agents who will already have a buyer in mind. Chiltern Relocation has seen a surge of properties being sold off the market and has helped to secure many of these houses for our clients.
See our Off Market Secret Sellers Blog here
In answer to the question, what will the housing market do this year, Chiltern Relocation believe that off market properties will continue to have a prominent place in the sales market. With the inevitable need to move due to the three D’s and the promise of lower interest rates, we do not believe that the market will fall away as per our predictions in the 4th quarter of 2023.
However, all eyes will continue to be focussed on the financial markets for future growth indicators. But Chiltern Relocation also knows from experience – we have been in the industry for 19 years – that there is still the underlying desire and need for many to move and that there are opportunities out there.
Please get in touch if you would like more information about the housing market and advice on whether now is a good time to consider your move. Call 01494 672086, email enquiries@chilternrelocation.com or visit our site for more information www.chilternrelocation.com, (paywall)
