The Property Market – is it falling or not?

Media, financial experts and property gurus were quick to analyse given data at the end of 2022, which pointed towards a slowdown in the property market. The BBC reported in November that: ‘UK house prices will fall for the next two years before starting to rise again, according to the government’s official forecaster with a drop of 9% expected between now and autumn 2024, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’.

Similar reports suggested that the property market had peaked and a correction was due. With the cost-of-living crisis affecting us all, the trebling of mortgage rates over 2022 and the recessionary forecasts it was not surprising that the property market would also be impacted.

However, to the surprise of many, the UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% when the latest GDP figures were released last week, indicating that such gloomy forecasts maybe did not need to be so gloomy.

This weekend The Sunday Times ‘Home’ supplement commented on the state of the market and stated: ‘Don’t Bet on a Big Fall on House Prices’.  The piece explains that the dismal forecasts may not be as bad as headlines have suggested. With the house market now becoming more equity driven – with less reliance on borrowing, and the mortgage lending market having been transformed thanks to regulations introduced after the global financial crisis, the housing market should be under less pressure than in the past.

The final point that The Sunday Times makes Why the gloomy house price predictions for 2023 are wrong  in support of their prediction is that the impact of covid is not yet over. Working from home is very much part of the new working landscape. This means that house hunters will continue to look more widely in their search.

Savills recently published their forecasts on the market and stated that: ‘Lead indicators continue to point to a lower-transaction, price-sensitive market over the coming year. However, there will continue to be demand from those looking to take advantage of a less competitive market place’.

Chiltern Relocation is always asked about the state of the market by fellow professionals and clients. Whilst we appreciate that forecasts have been understandably cautious, we are not witnessing a sharp slowdown as predicted. On the contrary, we have received more enquiries at the start of the year than last year and speaking to Estate Agents daily, they happily report a strong start to the year with increased levels of viewings than they expected.

We certainly agree that working from home is here to stay, as many of our recent house searches have specifically been targeted with this at the heart of the search. The desire for two home offices or a garden room office, more outside space and proximity to the train station but not on the doorstep of the tracks – as it would have been five or ten years ago – are now top of the brief for many clients.

The spike in retirement has also contributed to more house moves often involving houses with small or no mortgages. Unlike previous years, Chiltern Relocation has seen a rise in clients wishing to downsize but with specific requirements. We have been thrilled to guide these clients through what is a very big decision to leave the family home and find the optimal house for retirement.

With the statistics very much under scrutiny and the housing market very much under the microscope, Chiltern Relocation will continue to look at all forecasts and data but can say that we (like The Sunday Times) are cautiously optimistic that the top end of the housing market is not going to decline as much as predicted.

If you would like help moving for a rental property or a house purchase and need some advice, please do get in touch. Tel: 01494 672086 Email: enquiries@chilternrelocation.com or Visit: www.chilternrelocation.com